Statistical Modelling 3 (2003), 157–177
Modelling paired release-recovery data in the presence of survival
and capture heterogeneity with application to marked juvenile salmon
Ken B. Newman
Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling,
University of St. Andrews,
The Observatory, Buchanan Gardens,
St. Andrews KY16 9LZ, Scotland.
eMail: ken@mcs.st-and.ac.uk
Abstract:
Products of multinomial models have been the standard approach to
analyzing animal releaserecovery data. Two alternatives, a
pseudo-likelihood model and a Bayesian nonlinear hierarchical
model, are developed. Both approaches can to some degree account
for heterogeneity in survival and capture probabilities over and
above that accounted for by covariates. The pseudo-likelihood
approach allows for recovery period specific overdispersion.
The hierarchical approach treats survival and capture rates as a
sum of fixed and random effects. The standard and alternative approaches
were applied to a set of paired release-recovery salmon data.
Marked juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) were
released, with some recovered in freshwater as juveniles
and others in marine waters as adults. Interest centered on
modelling freshwater survival rates as a function of biological
and hydrological covariates. Under the product multinomial formulation,
most covariates were statistically significant. In contrast, under the
pseudo-likelihood and hierarchical formulations, the standard errors
for the coefficients were considerably larger, with
pseudo-likelihood standard errors five to eight times larger, and
fewer coefficients were statistically significant. Covariates,
significant under all formulations, with important management implications
included water temperature, water ow, and amount of water exported
for human use. The hierarchical model was considerably more stable
with regard to estimated coefficients of training
subsets used in a cross-validation.
Keywords:
Band-recovery models, hierarchical, Markov chain Monte Carlo,
mixed effects, pseudo-likelihood.
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